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„There is no place like home“

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No. 44610
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Investing Concepts:

Global Macro - Long Term Debt Cycle

Value Investment

Diversification & Asset Allocation

US Economic News:
Rising coronavirus infections threaten US economic recovery
>The Labor Department data emerged as the nation saw more troubling infections. Florida reported a single-day record of 156 deaths, along with nearly 14,000 new cases, mirroring a broader trend this week that has seen the national death rate spike. The seven-day rolling average for new deaths has risen to 730, a more than 21 percent increase from a week ago.

U.S. Job Gains Look Like They’re Slowing or Reversing in July
>U.S. job gains are set to slow sharply or even reverse in July after a resurgent coronavirus and new wave of shutdowns stymied the economic rebound.
>Coming on the heels of a combined gain of 7.5 million jobs in May and June, the trends spell a slowdown or halt to the labor-market rebound.

How are you navigating the current economic environment? Which countries, sectors, and businesses are you investing in?
No. 44614
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Ohhh good thread too bad I have to wake up really early tomorrow and should have been in bed an hour or two ago.

Well I am currently cash blocked atm and extremely worried on the inside about the fact that GOG declined my payments tonight. I'm not sure why but it's making me paranoid I wrote two checks and one didn't get cashed and counted my account total wrong and am going to found out I accidentally bounced a bunch of checks tomorrow (but then why wouldn't my landlord have called me already?) I have troubles with paranoia and general anxiety

BUT what are my investment plans, knock on wood should I get my issues resolved by July 31st when McConnel fails to renew UI/pass trumpelosibux 2.0 etc.?

Well let me tell you one thing ernst: CBD. I know I know it sounds like such a scam thing to invest in and I do have other ideas like genomics and biotech type of stuff all of which I'll try and explain later tomorrow, but what am I going to try to invest in should I suddenly have a couple grand, or even a few grand with stimulus? CBD.

I am actually currently looking for a good CBD IPO which is not as easy to find as I thought at first and sadly I'm going to be betting on not just what's a genuinely good product or company but rather what are boomers going to buy, but I have to look at which point in the supply chain the company is which tbh I'd much rather it be vertically integrated.
I really, really really really really want to get my f'n money by that time. Because see the thing is, a non-fucktardedly run CBD operation is going to be making you money anyway. Donald Trump passed the Farm Bill in 2018 which completely legalized hemp farming for CBD. This is going to be an exploding market. Not just for all the boomers, like for example my mom takes it, older boomer women are swarming to it, but also all the younger kids.

This shit just started appearing like last summer and with its passing http://anonym.to/https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5485 has expanded a new niche industry for all the people who want to smoke something like weed or take an alternative to pharmaceuticals. It can attract a wide range of people and I really want to get in on it before it becomes this huge thing. I view it as both reliable and expanding. The only thing is avoiding all those dippy kinds of people who may be running the show. I want a real professional, not some ditzy woman or drugged out stoner.

I'm thinking that the retailer is going to be a much riskier barring vertically integrated companies, but it's also got the greatest potential for rapid expansion of profits imo. A wholesaler otoh is probably going to be steady and reliable growth in profits, so it really comes down to, to me, if I had to choose, do I want the front end selling CBD oil, or the backend producing it or its precursor material?

So I think that it's not actually something that's going to be losing me lots of money if I'm wrong. However, can you just imagine what would happen if they come out with research that says it helps COVID somehow? They'll end up selling that shit like Forsythia. It wouldn't even matter if it worked that well or not just that it actually did something beneficial that given our current political climate you just know that Trump administration is going to start shilling for the stuff as a miracle nonstopunless he and/or Kushner had some weird competing investment interest against it like in big pharma that I don't know about or it conflicting which is going to skyrocket any company that makes it practically over night especially if you find the one everyone decides to make the company everyone popularizes all at once.

It's a big gamble but not necessarily a risky bet, and it's a major bet but one that can pay hard.

As for the economic news, like I mentioned earlier I want to get a little liquidity or at least something that is not so American or dependent on our dollar. My big bet? That the stock market will crash softly this fall. Or it could even do so hard idk it depends what Mitch McConnel and Senate Reps do with the next bailout coupled with the housing issue which is tied to the lending from banks issue. It's all a real Jenga tower over here atm and frankly I don't feel safe depending on it at all in any way shape or form. Lotta uncertainty. LOTTA uncertainty. But that can just provide opportunity for the sharp eye, right?

So the other thing though is to bear in mind that the fed has been ordered to keep pumping mountains of debt directly into the stock market to make Trump look good, which on some fundamental level is making the whole of our GDP one giant bubble to pop. People could lose everything. But really it's not what you know but who you know sadly if that happens, like the Russian story. I know no one, so I will not be an oligarch. Not sure if and when something like that could happen though, but
tl;dr I'm expecting a second collapse in the stock market any week now as is anyone not completely retarded because
>Rising coronavirus infections threaten US economic recovery
No. 44643
No. 44747
>It's a big gamble but not necessarily a risky bet, and it's a major bet but one that can pay hard.
Any large bet is risky.

I don't want to dig up the old thread, but I made a rather long post in it covering basic rules of investment from someone with recent success and failures. I.E. $1000 to $5000 back to $1000.

From reading your posts, it sounds like you view investing as your magic ticket out of serfdom. It's not. If you have that attitude, you will love everything. You can't help but avoid desperation, impulse buying, holding on past the point of all reason because THIS will be the one that turns you into a made man.

There are a lot of good investing advice channels on youtube. Trading Fraternity is my favorite, and I trust the guy because I know roughly how much money he's made from his investments in the past, and how much he's making now (he livestreams the entire trading day, every day). If I just ignored my instincts and autistically followed the rules he tells you to follow, I would probably still have $5k in equity in my trading account. They're good rules. If you don't have the discipline to autistically follow them, with literally no exceptions, no matter how strong your will rages against the laws of prudence, don't trade. You will just end up losing what little money you have, along with the last little bit of hope you didn't even know you had left.
No. 44748
I remember that story, and the one involving your dad. Funny you just bumped this I was browsing around with precious metals. Where do you find a pound of silver or a few grams of gold and such. There's all these sites with the most absolutely ridiculous fucking premise like "only $x.xx over spot!" as if they're somehow doing you a favor while robbing you blind. Why the fucking hell would I want to pay $2,100 for only $1,800 worth of gold? Or why would I be willing to pay $735 for just $677 worth of silver? It's not just that it's a scam but that it's such a transparently moronic one. It's basically like saying "give me your money so I can convert it to less money back!"

As for investment I'm well aware of that. I'm not actually looking at it like that so much as a new place to dump some of my money which frankly I'm more expecting to have to look at it like actual bydlo gambling i.e. everything I throw into it just about has to be written off as a loss, and to have that as my maximum cap of what I'm willing to lose. Given the current situation you'd have to be crazy to see the stock market as some kind of get rich quick easy ticket. I'm more waiting to see if it ends up bottoming out considering all the amazingly stupid shit everybody running this country seems to be doing.

My biggest fear right now is that for God knows what reason McConnel et al refuse to renew the mortgage/rent moratoriums and also refuse to do anything about the HEROES bill. It's not just because of reasons I'm pretty sure I harped on before with a situation that could cause things like a housing market collapse, stock market crash, banking collapse or all kinds of other surprises this Fall, but also the simple fact that this admin has been throwing literally trillions of dollars at the stock market not even just now but even before the pandemic because "Stock numbers go up, I look good" meaning our national debt basically just got overleveraged buying up completely worthless junk bonds and valueless stock assets in one last desperate bid to prop up the markets. It's a profoundly dangerous situation and one that would be stupid of me to throw money at but I'd like to find a few places to hide my money and invest it against various eventualities. Another of these issues that I've been thinking about is the possibility for runaway hyperinflation.

Of course it won't actually fix anything that's broken but if they do at least pass that next stimulus billikens expecting it to at least keep the economy propped up for several more months. The problem is that I'm feeling really allergic to any kind of super longterm investments in the manner you're supposed to invest, given how little faith I ultimately have in this country and its economy being intact 10, 20 years down the line.

Realistically, out of a couple different options I'd be going into what I'd actually be doing is hedging my bets and leveraging against my better instincts and knowledge. Of course, what I'd probably be much better off doing in terms of no sale before 10 year investments would be looking much more into foreign companies so that a real crash wouldnt end up wiping out not just my currency but any other assets too. The real maximally worst case scenario of course my best investment would be a gun and some ammo I'm just still vaguely uncomfortable with myself having a firearm near me at all times
No. 44750
I've been thinking about where to invest in the long-term. When shit really hits the fan, all the fake value in society will evaporate, and manufacturing and resource extraction will be all that's left.

Given that the American economy is overwhelmingly based on fake value, I'd invest in a foreign country with a strong manufacturing sector and good political stability. China would be the most obvious choice if they weren't a xenophobic commie shithole. Next best choice is Japan, South Korea, or any European country with a strong industrial base for its size, though our huge monstrous tech companies are also probably a safe bet. Even if the US collapses, there's a good chance that Google and Facebook and Amazon will weather the storm and set themselves up as the technofeudal overlords of the West Coast.
No. 44751
To elaborate, tech companies do actually create some goods and services of value, so we can expect at least some of their ridiculous net worth to be maintained if shit hits the fan. I hate to tie up my fortunes with Jeff fucking Bezos, but Amazon is the surest bet - nothing the tech sector has produced is as resilient and of real productive valuable as Amazon's distribution infrastructure. Goods will always have to be delivered, even if they're all produced in China.

Once I have real money, I'll probably split it between various currencies from strong industrial countries, stock from companies in the same countries, Amazon stock, and bitcoin. Keep an account with a bank that isn't overleveraged on trash investments, and based in a politically stable country.
No. 44895
There is value in the US economy, but we are in a period where stock price has diverged about 2 standard deviations away from the fundamentals.

The world is also entering monetary policy 3. Interest rates are 0 or negative. Lots of pressure to maintain social programs and prevent a global depression meaning the easiest way out is through money printing.

If you believe that the economy has fake value, I would suggest looking at creating a portfolio of industrial sector stocks, commodity sector stocks, and REIT's. Then you can balance it out with precious metal and broad-commodity based futures.

That way you will be less correlated to the speculative sectors of the economy and your portfolio is diversified away from currencies and more towards prices of material goods.
No. 44896
Not sure how you're reading into my investing style just from the really general information in the OP.

I am running a leveraged risk parity portfolio and a macro portfolio and both are outperforming SPY.

I am diversified between several nation and asset classes, have stop losses in place, and actively manage position size based on the risk of the portfolio.
No. 44934
What is a macro portfolio? Is this just some term for a collection of smaller portfolios?
No. 44989
Portfolio where the investment strategy is based off macroeconomic trends like inflation rate, interest rate, and government policy.

In particular, the Austrian liquidity cycle and bond yield as timing methods for the performance of different asset classes.