>Have you ever considered that this might be your problem and not the answer?
The problem is that you do not grasp it due to suffering from a severe case of being a retarded communist.
>said nobody ever,
Then 'nobody ever' should not be surprised by low elasticity in energy markets. But 'nobody ever' seems to be surprised. I think 'nobody ever' should see a head-doctor.
>the problems is "local" not world wide
I can't tell if you are a genuine retard or playing dumb. Like it is not trivially possible to substitute gas with oil, it is not trivially possible to substitute gas in Europe with gas in the US or the united Emirates. You need enough possibilities of arbitrage for a long time to make the investment into the vastly expensive infrastructure that does that possible. It's much easier with, for example, ICs that weigh ten grams each. Pack a ton of them into a plane, fly them around the world, ten million ICs at place A have now been converted into ten million ICs at place B.
>but I'm not talking about these contracts or speculations on prices going up or down but prices in reaction to information flows a
Suppose I have information you do not have. Based on that information, I adapt my market activity. That incorporates the information I have into the price of the good traded and gives you a chance to adapt your market activity in turn, without having access to the information I have. A good thing, isn't it? Huge advantage to government-regulated pricing where resources are (mis-)allocated by beurocrats and will be dealt on black market. A fertilizer plant in a regulated market needs more gas, but prices are fixed and they have been allocated a fixed amount. What can they do? They have to trade in some of their product for gas. Example of how this could work: A amount of fertilizer is given to a farmer, he will pay in potatoes which will then be give to a fries factory which will then hand back half of the potatoes turned to fries and use the other half for their own purposes. Your half will be enough to supply some restaurant for a quarter of a year, the restaurant will in turn hold the wedding of some beurocrats daughter who will pay for it by increasing your gas allocation. I am certain that such deals would be made. All price regulation does is making currency worthless.
Regulated prices do not increase supply, either. There is a limited amount of everything to go round. You can not just regulate prices for Lamborghinis and think that then, everyone will be able to afford one and everyone will be driving Lamborghinis. I hope you can figure out why that won't work. Same with gas.
>markets as being herds basically, observers observing other observers, which is basically looking to what others do and not "reality".
Prices for gas in Europe are high because almost all Russian gas is off the market and less gas comes into Europe. But it is impossible to burn gas at a greater rate than the rate of influx for extended periods of time. For supply to meet demand, prices need to increase. Because the inelastic nature of the market, gas prices will increase vastly, as we have seen. Supply can be increased some, but only at a very high cost. For example, LNG tankers headed for Pakistani ports have been turned around mid-sea to Europe, sometimes only miles away from port. For such breaches of contacts to be profitable, there have to be huge incentives in the form of very high prices. But demand still has to be reduced, and this is happening. Energy intensive production is being shut down, as it is no longer profitable. People are getting used to cold homes and cold showers.
If, based on prudent analysis, you think taking Russian gas of the European market does not lead to a decrease in supply that justifies the current prices, i. e. current prices are too high and will reduce demand/increase supply to a point where demand can be more than met by supply, i.e. there will be an oversupply of gas in the next weeks or months, I highly advice you too short gas contracts and become rich. Because in that case, the gas bubble will burst. Just do it and become rich, since you are, once again, smarter than the market. Same as with US bond yields, market has it wrong, there will be no recession in the US, you have it right. Rates are up another .75%, by the way. But go on, say the FED is overplaying their hand, they are just bluffing, put your chips on the table...
I am not convinced that Americans will think it just dandy when they are out of a job and on food-stamps, and every week, Congress decides to send hundreds or thousands more missiles worth billions of dollars halfway around the globe. Because having decent health insurance or decent food or a roof over their head might be more important to Americans than blowing up Russian munitions depots in Ukraine. But opinions on that seem to differ.